Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84128b6520a0474a873a667fc3f693120fa737beebff4b1935a671179235894e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 1c | 1,350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 1c | 1,350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 46c | 1,027$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b9…580fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 299.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 263.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 39c | 253.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 63c | 219.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 69c | 179.44$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 32c | 177.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed No | 51c | 171.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 152.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 152$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 152$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 15c | 151.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…f8d0backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 64c | 147.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 142.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 36c | 141.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 60c | 133.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 17c | 113.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 112.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 33c | 107.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 106.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756c…66c7backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 91.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 88.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 87.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 86.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 23c | 85.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 85.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 30c | 80.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 15c | 79.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 44c | 79.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 73.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 73.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 49c | 72.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 70.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 42c | 68.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 46c | 64.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…b0c7backed Yes | 49c | 61.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 42c | 58.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 52c | 53.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 52.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes | 44c | 45.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 26c | 40.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 51c | 39.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 53c | 38.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 39c | 37.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 54c | 37.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 46c | 32.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…637ebacked No | 63c | 31.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 55c | 26.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 58c | 25.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.