Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7a8568295939aefe6c3ca2e73c2d70e1e58d242275089145c72f490a7e03194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 1c | 1,704$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 791.71$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 76c | 409.87$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 22c | 379.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 351.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 296$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 42c | 294.05$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.07 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 9c | 292.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 267.81$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked No | 18c | 263.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 207.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 44c | 199.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 16c | 179.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 37c | 143.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 143$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 26c | 135.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 132.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 127.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 27c | 125.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 114$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…62bebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 25c | 98.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 98.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 98.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 15c | 92.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 77c | 88.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 37c | 88.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed Yes | 23c | 88.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 29c | 72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 29c | 67.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 63.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 34c | 54.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 33c | 53.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 38c | 49.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 80c | 48.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 47.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 24c | 45.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 41.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 41.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 59c | 40.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 29c | 38.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 36.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 76c | 32.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 73c | 30.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 29.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 27.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed Yes | 64c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 21.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.