Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04739b344c6e6b019090a29f94adb71cd23dd2ed4341eb36483e61f7f856f9db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 68c | 645.54$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.48 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 386.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 296$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 262.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 13c | 260.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 189.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 49c | 182.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 14c | 180.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 178.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 11c | 160.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 32c | 154.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 72c | 136.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 136.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 134.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 60c | 99.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 51c | 98.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 41c | 94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 53c | 88.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 33c | 81.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 46c | 79.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 63c | 79.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 37c | 78.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed Yes | 67c | 74.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 46c | 74.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 50c | 69.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…62bebacked Yes | 58c | 69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 46c | 66.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 27c | 63.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 61c | 59.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 56.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 39c | 53.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 39c | 51.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 50.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 35c | 46.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 64c | 45.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 45.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 41.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 80c | 41.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 41.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 38.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 36.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 33c | 35.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 39c | 35.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 35.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 45c | 27.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 24.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 54c | 24.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 54c | 22.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.