MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7b23a9f116311910481056891e4d8171d19dc5b284ff48049f26594659e95f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 3,240$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 3,234$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.5 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 2,047$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.59 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 1,209$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 1,052$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.98 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 1,008$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.56 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 754.79$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.88 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 377$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.59 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 367$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 357.29$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 305$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 271.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 250.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 92.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 87.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 87.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 82.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 81.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 76.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Colorado Rockies | 56c | 69.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 68.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 49.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 36.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 36.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 33.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…98ddbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 30.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 29.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 27.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -9.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Colorado Rockies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.