MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba2a9512917aaab7e69240c2cc5a5543ad73b9abb79201b2ecbb86d9aa3cb59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.95 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Under | 48c | 2,708$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.33 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 50c | 2,555$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.5 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 1,932$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.03 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Over | 54c | 1,843$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 1,603$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.38 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 47c | 1,447$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.7 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 48c | 1,050$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Over | 52c | 999.97$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 46c | 911.96$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 898.37$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 846.66$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.02 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 48c | 793$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.36 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Under | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 51c | 571.08$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.77 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 538.44$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.22 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 51c | 503.25$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.37 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 52c | 500$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Over | 53c | 439.95$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.17 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Under | 47c | 379.46$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.98 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 364.1$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.31 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 48c | 350$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Under | 47c | 348.93$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.93 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 30c | 311.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Over | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 58c | 293.61$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.97 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Under | 47c | 277$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Under | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 47c | 246.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 46c | 215.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.47 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 180.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 175$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 172.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 45c | 171$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 51c | 140.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 50c | 133$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 50c | 125.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked Under | 47c | 122.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 47c | 122.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 39c | 116$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 54c | 104.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 101.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ae…97c0backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 47c | 86.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 47c | 69.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 47c | 69.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 47c | 69.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 47c | 68.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 47c | 66.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 57.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0922…d953backed Under | 47c | 55.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 48c | 51.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Over | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b82…e591backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 33.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…183ebacked Under | 47c | 27.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 47c | 27.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Colorado Rockies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.