Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs. Team Tidebound
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7fd66d4f70bf41d55ef0a3e58dbbb544ae60edb97ef162a2513def9e67b2acc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Team Tidebound
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Tidebound | 39c | 2,241$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.62 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…4bf1backed Team Tidebound | 49c | 2,033$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Team Tidebound | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Team Tidebound | 51c | 1,935$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…3b02backed Team Tidebound | 30c | 1,934$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 1,820$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.6 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Team Tidebound | 7c | 1,099$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 899.99$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.99 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 799$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.57 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…e9dfbacked Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 774.73$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Team Tidebound | 46c | 699.99$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Team Tidebound | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 524.25$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.86 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 482.66$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.05 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 58c | 346.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Team Tidebound | 49c | 313.66$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Team Tidebound | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Tidebound | 46c | 220.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 214.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 208.88$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…9decbacked Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…c195backed Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 153.92$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 129 | 66.7%86 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…6bbdbacked Team Tidebound | 27c | 147.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Team Tidebound | 24c | 138.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…e171backed Team Tidebound | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…c0dabacked Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 97.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…3895backed Team Tidebound | 49c | 95.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…64cfbacked Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Tidebound | 23c | 81.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 79.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…5091backed Xtreme Gaming | 77c | 65.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…4596backed Team Tidebound | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 67c | 51.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…96ffbacked Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…ba20backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.