Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7fda90630dd67fe0ed9719c4812935994444780dc919146027e15cd8612e6aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x890a…ea10backed No | 1c | 5,442$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 8c | 763.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked No | 3c | 564.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 363 | 26.4%96 W · 267 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked No | 63c | 292.7$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.61 | 80 | 18.8%15 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 29c | 251$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 522 | 22.4%117 W · 405 L | +27.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 37c | 197.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 71c | 191.13$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 14c | 188.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked Yes | 59c | 146.57$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a06…bf30backed Yes | 75c | 131.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 119.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 22c | 116.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 1,847 | 27.6%509 W · 1,338 L | +24.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 112.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 41c | 108.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 77c | 106.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…05fabacked Yes | 80c | 102.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 58.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…c191backed No | 55c | 57.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 53.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 32c | 47.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 41.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…b85cbacked Yes | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,839 | 11.2%317 W · 2,522 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 59c | 32.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 76c | 32.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 47c | 32.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 52c | 29.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 214 | 32.7%70 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 68c | 27.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 72c | 26.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4678…0c64backed Yes | 77c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 25.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 42c | 25.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 72c | 23.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 77c | 20.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…3063backed Yes | 53c | 19.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 66c | 18.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.