AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc83cce46b6e47df5bbed8afa93bbac7177b4b99d8cf9d6679fa4c5936d8d82db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 656.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 386.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 11c | 374.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 10c | 368$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 69c | 296.12$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 11c | 258.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…f295backed No | 38c | 218.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 15c | 190.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 76c | 140.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 12c | 131.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 104.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 28c | 95.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 94.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 75c | 61.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 79c | 53.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 52.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 45c | 31.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7b…cd98backed Yes | 45c | 24.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will ByteDance have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.