Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc87a79e374138bc731f14f7eae6ab24d0a33e32020350c7ca24b4ce3f36381bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 61c | 1,040$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.22 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 323.43$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.75 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 241.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 49c | 203.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 203.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 188.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 156.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 145.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 129.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 78c | 119.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 30c | 117$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 109.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 52c | 104.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…b7bcbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 80c | 82.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 63c | 78.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 51c | 75.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 65c | 74.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 56c | 68.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 67.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 67.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 55c | 67.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 56c | 54.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 63c | 54.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 45c | 49.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 48c | 49.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 48.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 50c | 42.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 73c | 42.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 42.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 48c | 39.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993d…3733backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 47c | 34.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed No | 55c | 33.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 70c | 33.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 58c | 31.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 29.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 71c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 25.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 62c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 51c | 23.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 45c | 22.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 63c | 21.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7128…85d1backed No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 51c | 20.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.