Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8815b74e7aef01e52d17a87d4d4b6927ca37c27d270025ddde0cbc02e8bd17a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Villanova Wildcatsof Wisconsin Badgers, Villanova Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 308$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 277.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Villanova Wildcats | 53c | 233.65$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 208.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 194.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 137$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Villanova Wildcats | 48c | 122$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Villanova Wildcats | 57c | 107$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 103$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Villanova Wildcats | 48c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 35.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…bd5cbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5)this page
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Wisconsin BadgersVillanova Wildcats won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 149.5Under won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 150.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.