Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8c1987159971db23766cc63afc8192eac3873063daa802392261ad3e14bc982
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 1,049$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,032$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.29 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 866.84$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.79 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 579.5$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 558.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 14c | 555.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.87 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 54c | 460.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 47c | 371.97$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.04 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 308.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 245.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.63 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 205.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 30c | 204.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.56 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 12c | 204.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 13c | 199.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.89 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 199.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked No | 10c | 182$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 179.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 167.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 33c | 164.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.64 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 157.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 21c | 146.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 74c | 146.28$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 144.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 69c | 143.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed Yes | 69c | 140.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 31c | 127.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 77c | 126.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 47c | 125.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 32c | 121.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 30c | 118.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 69c | 115.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 17c | 109.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 13c | 102.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 24c | 97.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked Yes | 69c | 97.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 79c | 87.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 86.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 78c | 86.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…d3cfbacked No | 28c | 73.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 21c | 71.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 70.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 69.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 44c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 33c | 65.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 70c | 65.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 31c | 62.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 61.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 69c | 60.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 68c | 58.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 22c | 56.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 19c | 55.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 74c | 55.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 53.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…9ec7backed No | 26c | 51.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 50.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 28c | 49.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 42c | 47.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 23c | 45.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 47c | 45.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 42c | 45.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 65c | 44.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 71c | 40.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 26c | 39.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 32c | 38.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 30c | 37.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…e93fbacked No | 79c | 37.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 72c | 37.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 70c | 35.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…dd14backed No | 65c | 33.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 71c | 32.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9f…c5abbacked No | 66c | 32.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…8a4dbacked No | 78c | 29.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 79c | 29.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 67c | 29.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 74c | 29.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 71c | 27.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 27.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 25.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 79c | 24.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…ec02backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cb04backed No | 80c | 24.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…89edbacked No | 70c | 24.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…0400backed Yes | 56c | 23.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 71c | 22.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 22.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 78c | 21.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…55c2backed No | 55c | 20.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 73c | 20.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 78c | 20.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.