Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3fefe7f58d76135cd73e05b4223f753ccbd80ca518b89363eb3d9c3788408cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 47c | 382.42$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.83 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 358.33$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 330.34$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 50c | 311.95$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 298.22$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 64c | 266.68$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 43c | 239.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 211.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 49c | 189.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 32c | 187.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 167.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 48c | 139.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 57c | 125.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 62c | 122.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 121.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 47c | 101.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 35c | 100.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 70c | 89.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 35c | 88.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 88.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 61c | 85.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 83.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed No | 54c | 70.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 19c | 70.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952f…73c5backed Yes | 63c | 68.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 18c | 67.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 57c | 63.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 71c | 61.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9f…c5abbacked No | 58c | 57.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 56c | 56.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 55.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 21c | 52.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 51.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b3…532cbacked No | 51c | 50.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 45c | 50.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 50.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 80c | 49.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 39c | 48.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 48c | 47.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 46.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 41c | 46.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 51c | 45.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 43.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 42.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 41.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…e333backed Yes | 42c | 41.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 63c | 38.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…ebb2backed Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 37c | 37.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 42c | 36.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 49c | 35.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 41c | 33.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 40c | 32.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 34c | 32.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 58c | 32.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 56c | 30.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 60c | 29.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 45c | 29.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 58c | 28.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 57c | 28.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 49c | 28.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 73c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…abaebacked Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad00…c409backed No | 57c | 22.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 21.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 52c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…2d87backed Yes | 64c | 21.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 57c | 20.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…422ebacked No | 57c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…8303backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa254…7ec3backed No | 58c | 18.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…b6b8backed No | 64c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…426fbacked No | 57c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 56c | 17.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 66c | 16.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 73c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 73c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.