MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8e061a827ee4b2855bf181d0c7eee4b57548a32603c7e5ba0b880222449998c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Nationals, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Astros | 44c | 26,796$11,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,030.57 | 188 | 37.8%71 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Nationals | 68c | 19,986$13,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,590.47 | 540 | 51.1%276 W · 264 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nationals | 8c | 8,701$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.2 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nationals | 36c | 7,653$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728.16 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Astros | 32c | 5,713$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,884.96 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Astros | 50c | 3,467$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.57 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Nationals | 47c | 3,224$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.28 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals | 48c | 2,602$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Astros | 32c | 1,993$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.46 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals | 40c | 1,956$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Nationals | 44c | 1,700$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…98b9backed Nationals | 62c | 1,588$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Astros | 51c | 1,498$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.98 | 382 | 49.5%189 W · 193 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Nationals | 26c | 1,395$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.09 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nationals | 37c | 1,093$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.32 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Astros | 51c | 1,024$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.74 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Nationals | 44c | 964.06$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.08 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Astros | 52c | 950$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 1,012 | 51.2%518 W · 494 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Nationals | 47c | 771.23$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.21 | 384 | 44%169 W · 215 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Astros | 51c | 693.02$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.58 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Nationals | 49c | 680.27$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.33 | 709 | 46.1%327 W · 382 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…1467backed Nationals | 14c | 571.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Astros | 57c | 562.7$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.11 | 340 | 51.2%174 W · 166 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Astros | 57c | 562.44$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.72 | 253 | 64.4%163 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Astros | 57c | 562$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.28 | 327 | 54.7%179 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Astros | 57c | 545.37$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.86 | 145 | 65.5%95 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Astros | 20c | 532.07$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.66 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Astros | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 424 | 52.1%221 W · 203 L | +15.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Nationals | 48c | 486.26$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.83 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Astros | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0229…ea6cbacked Nationals | 22c | 444.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 417 | 47.2%197 W · 220 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…0bb9backed Nationals | 49c | 381.63$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Nationals | 4c | 361.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nationals | 45c | 351.3$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.16 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked Nationals | 45c | 350$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +32.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Nationals | 49c | 343.92$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Nationals | 46c | 328.36$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.55 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Nationals | 47c | 269.64$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Astros | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Nationals | 44c | 245.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Nationals | 46c | 211.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Astros | 59c | 177.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 1,396 | 55.2%770 W · 626 L | -28.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Astros | 61c | 153.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Astros | 59c | 127.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Nationals | 50c | 123.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 546 | 54.9%300 W · 246 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Nationals | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Nationals | 48c | 121.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Nationals | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Nationals | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 312 | 44.2%138 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Astros | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Astros | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Nationals | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Nationals | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 171 | 39.2%67 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c4…25e7backed Nationals | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Astros | 50c | 88.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 308 | 50%154 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals | 48c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Astros | 53c | 81.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 432 | 47.2%204 W · 228 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…571fbacked Astros | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Nationals | 50c | 77.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 1,086 | 46.2%502 W · 584 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Astros | 55c | 71.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Nationals | 46c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Astros | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa320…8232backed Nationals | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -20.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Nationals | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Astros | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Nationals | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 426 | 51.2%218 W · 208 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Astros | 41c | 48.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Astros | 50c | 46.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Nationals | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 512 | 45.1%231 W · 281 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…946fbacked Astros | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nationals | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Nationals | 49c | 31.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 268 | 45.5%122 W · 146 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Nationals | 47c | 31.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 850 | 47.4%403 W · 447 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Nationals | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Astros | 52c | 29.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,302 | 56.7%738 W · 564 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…7570backed Astros | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…c096backed Astros | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Astros | 41c | 28.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 313 | 47.9%150 W · 163 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nationals | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…ca89backed Astros | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 235 | 43.4%102 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Nationals | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 355 | 51.5%183 W · 172 L | +24.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.