MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc90c202c0458755b1da68ebdf50aae955f9d4dc02426e289e92127660fe20fbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cardinals, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians | 28c | 8,650$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.18 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…55acbacked Guardians | 54c | 3,723$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…a1c2backed Cardinals | 49c | 3,269$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.24 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Cardinals | 77c | 3,113$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.8 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Guardians | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.04 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Guardians | 52c | 2,712$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.21 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Cardinals | 48c | 2,708$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.33 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…b3d7backed Guardians | 41c | 1,893$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.98 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcce…136abacked Cardinals | 19c | 1,889$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.29 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Cardinals | 47c | 1,870$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.1 | 452 | 48.2%218 W · 234 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Cardinals | 48c | 1,440$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.93 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…69aebacked Cardinals | 47c | 1,350$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.49 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cardinals | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Guardians | 13c | 911.92$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…0a1dbacked Cardinals | 47c | 829.98$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Guardians | 23c | 719.92$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 223 | 12.1%27 W · 196 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Guardians | 19c | 690.94$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Guardians | 53c | 649$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.97 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Guardians | 46c | 525.25$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Guardians | 20c | 508$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Guardians | 52c | 499.9$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.95 | 382 | 49.5%189 W · 193 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians | 19c | 480.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cardinals | 46c | 453.93$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.12 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…e520backed Cardinals | 47c | 435.84$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.8 | 279 | 53.4%149 W · 130 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cardinals | 69c | 427.3$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.31 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cardinals | 47c | 422$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.66 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Guardians | 32c | 372.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Guardians | 15c | 343.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 203 | 43.8%89 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…9fdabacked Guardians | 53c | 315$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 313 | 46.6%146 W · 167 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Guardians | 32c | 270.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed Cardinals | 20c | 268$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Cardinals | 9c | 225$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.53 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 47c | 213$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Cardinals | 47c | 213$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Cardinals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Cardinals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Guardians | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Cardinals | 6c | 192$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.9 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cardinals | 18c | 185.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Guardians | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b2…9d97backed Cardinals | 55c | 182.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…ed7ebacked Guardians | 57c | 175.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Cardinals | 47c | 161$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Guardians | 8c | 153.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Guardians | 25c | 151$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 46c | 144.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 45c | 134.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Cardinals | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Guardians | 17c | 118.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 33.3%64 W · 128 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…c876backed Guardians | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Cardinals | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Cardinals | 47c | 74.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…0a81backed Guardians | 78c | 73.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Guardians | 53c | 53.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…d1cabacked Cardinals | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…c308backed Guardians | 29c | 51.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Cardinals | 47c | 49.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd145…2642backed Cardinals | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ec…6b20backed Guardians | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -6.5wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…b903backed Cardinals | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1162…1a5bbacked Cardinals | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…c14fbacked Cardinals | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Cardinals | 48c | 41.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Cardinals | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…9f2bbacked Guardians | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Guardians | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Cardinals | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Guardians | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Guardians | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e99…ff85backed Cardinals | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Cardinals | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Cardinals | 68c | 30.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…a2a4backed Guardians | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cardinals | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…6f3bbacked Guardians | 73c | 24.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…ed97backed Guardians | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Cardinals | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 195 | 66.2%129 W · 66 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.