NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Pelicans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc93cb550319fd47681f3fdf6dce71d761844532c32a93dfb2e8a5ad401c3da96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Pelicans | 13c | 15,076$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.91 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Pelicans | 16c | 11,185$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.96 | 730 | 51.8%378 W · 352 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c4…905ebacked Pelicans | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b4…230bbacked Pelicans | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Pelicans | 1c | 7,570$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Heat | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Pelicans | 10c | 4,990$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.65 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Pelicans | 11c | 3,600$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.75 | 283 | 41.7%118 W · 165 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Pelicans | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Pelicans | 9c | 2,631$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.78 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Pelicans | 10c | 2,400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Pelicans | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pelicans | 8c | 1,812$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pelicans | 6c | 1,146$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Pelicans | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Pelicans | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…56a3backed Pelicans | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 321 | 30.2%97 W · 224 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Pelicans | 6c | 900$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 311 | 25.1%78 W · 233 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Pelicans | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b8…976cbacked Pelicans | 7c | 691.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Pelicans | 3c | 625.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Pelicans | 4c | 563.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 365 | 14.2%52 W · 313 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Pelicans | 10c | 555.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pelicans | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Pelicans | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca34…8cb1backed Pelicans | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…aae3backed Pelicans | 12c | 405$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pelicans | 13c | 397.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 377 | 34%128 W · 249 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Pelicans | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 302 | 43.7%132 W · 170 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Pelicans | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pelicans | 12c | 216.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Pelicans | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 679 | 11%75 W · 604 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Pelicans | 6c | 185.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 370 | 11.4%42 W · 328 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…d16ebacked Pelicans | 14c | 174.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…1520backed Pelicans | 14c | 173.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Pelicans | 8c | 136$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Pelicans | 12c | 129.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…3917backed Pelicans | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Pelicans | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 718 | 23.3%167 W · 551 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…80a4backed Pelicans | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Pelicans | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…2cb5backed Pelicans | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Pelicans | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 45.9%178 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pelicans | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Pelicans | 15c | 71.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…0578backed Heat | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.