TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$208,862

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,862 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Yandex55c29,770$16,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,369.8154556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x230d…1cddbacked MOUZ46c28,336$13,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,034.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked MOUZ45c21,111$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,499.946150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a27…9edbbacked Team Yandex54c14,877$8,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,843.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ46c9,672$4,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,471.7155157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5485…abd8backed Team Yandex54c8,949$4,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,116.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked MOUZ49c8,557$4,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,192.937357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Yandex51c8,532$4,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,180.928748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Yandex54c7,408$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,407.6842650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed MOUZ47c6,119$2,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,875.812133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Yandex53c5,027$2,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.8111854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked MOUZ40c4,500$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.9920159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfde…3f9cbacked Team Yandex54c4,318$2,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd722…2b5bbacked MOUZ48c4,276$2,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Team Yandex53c3,800$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,78610445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ45c3,561$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.3760542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Yandex55c3,470$1,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.9520367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f72…adc6backed Team Yandex70c3,425$2,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.373066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Yandex54c3,359$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.6623653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked MOUZ49c3,120$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.84358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Team Yandex51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4703647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed MOUZ47c2,605$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.169555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Yandex53c2,200$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03413441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ10c2,139$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Yandex52c2,104$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.0334544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Team Yandex55c2,100$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.6616142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ30c2,079$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6151,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed MOUZ48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9602142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed Team Yandex52c1,943$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.046145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.8279959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ35c1,432$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.812,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d33…7287backed MOUZ58c1,384$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Team Yandex79c1,264$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5230356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Yandex53c1,262$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.1436851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed MOUZ25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed MOUZ3c1,100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3316821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed MOUZ51c982.43$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003928.2%11 W · 28 L-7.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xab2e…2014backed MOUZ49c948.18$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4641020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-45%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed MOUZ48c906.98$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.355850%29 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked MOUZ49c890$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.842145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Team Yandex50c870.12$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.063455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Yandex78c865.02$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.341242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed MOUZ50c862$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.811253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Yandex51c860$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.436041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed MOUZ50c850$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42513045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed MOUZ44c833.76$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.8616050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked MOUZ46c815$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.95839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed MOUZ47c806.02$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.8321264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ45c800$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Yandex60c746.32$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.8418362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed MOUZ45c734.07$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32755457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Yandex62c721.37$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.3748539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Yandex67c700$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23138049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Team Yandex60c700$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2806043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Team Yandex76c700$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16619664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ33c700$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23153652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Yandex72c700$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.5192056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed MOUZ46c649.6$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.273551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked MOUZ47c640$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.88844.3%39 W · 49 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed MOUZ44c615.6$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.867149.3%35 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed MOUZ46c614.95$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.882352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed MOUZ49c611.62$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Yandex80c606$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.222954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Yandex59c598.73$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.3966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Team Yandex73c577.91$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.6233645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da2…8c2bbacked Team Yandex53c577.17$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.7110966.1%72 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Team Yandex53c565.6$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.743737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Yandex55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4546240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Team Yandex53c521.27$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24615650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Team Yandex67c520.03$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.039254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Team Yandex51c509.28$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5510141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed MOUZ45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2253461.8%21 W · 13 L+6.0wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+45%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked MOUZ48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2405740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ37c485.14$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.21,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Team Yandex56c477$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5314121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed MOUZ44c454.4$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.455648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Yandex54c452.77$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.2255251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Yandex57c440.64$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.6429245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Yandex69c426.38$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.761,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed MOUZ47c425.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed MOUZ47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1883450%17 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ38c399.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.891,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked MOUZ11c392.9$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3737811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Team Yandex52c385.38$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.2814849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed MOUZ47c361.7$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1704055%22 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Yandex48c350$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.4156542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac6a…ba57backed MOUZ46c350$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Team Yandex54c343.75$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.9522945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Yandex54c322.28$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8229548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Team Yandex54c310.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.067665.8%50 W · 26 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0705…41ebbacked MOUZ47c308$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.761957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+86%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a11…ef8ebacked MOUZ46c303.3$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed MOUZ13c300$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%0 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Yandex79c300$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7261548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Yandex50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1865441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc26f…ce3bbacked Team Yandex60c297.86$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.145950.8%30 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e06…95d1backed Team Yandex51c292.14$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.151855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed MOUZ10c285.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306349.2%31 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed MOUZ73c284.93$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20820350.7%103 W · 100 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed MOUZ47c274.36$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1294245.2%19 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.