MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc965a238774aad6731d35c69753d34f707202f03e86e4f4154bfd3556e8d4df9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 2,622$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.44 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 2,351$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 1,013$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 857.89$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 769.83$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Under | 66c | 446.08$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 61c | 212.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 37c | 174$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 63c | 174$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 51c | 139.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 130.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 37c | 128.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 61c | 123.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 39c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 38c | 56.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 51c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 40c | 50.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 50.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…2dbabacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 54c | 33.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 35c | 32.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…4d46backed Under | 61c | 32.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 60c | 27.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 48c | 23.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Under | 68c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…d0eebacked Under | 65c | 18.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 64c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x118a…457ebacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.