Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc974dd1e6a312ad55ed24616ea226522dc2769f1f07c34e895d69f590870e363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 1,296$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 30c | 845.07$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.43 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 2c | 733$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.34 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 4c | 586.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 557.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.46 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 14c | 362.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.72 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 5c | 353$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.34 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 58c | 268.93$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 7c | 248.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.95 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 18c | 181.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.32 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 10c | 176.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.59 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 171.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 18c | 164.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.33 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 151.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 148.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 147.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 19c | 141.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 138.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 14c | 138.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 27c | 134.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 122.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 10c | 122.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.42 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 26c | 112.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 110.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…de76backed Yes | 10c | 109$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 33c | 81.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 62c | 58.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7254…39c0backed Yes | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 63c | 43.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…2bb9backed Yes | 68c | 39.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 50c | 32.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 30.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 27.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 61c | 26.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 26.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 79c | 21.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 72c | 19.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 79c | 16.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Yes | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.