Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x795e3ad4de9e06627a96bb20ff99fbbb72cb77030669b382eee3e388ecd04670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc13…8c5dbacked Yes | 65c | 799.99$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 27c | 647.28$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.14 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 42c | 575.9$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.72 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…ca49backed Yes | 54c | 552.88$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 515.22$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 57c | 407.92$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.21 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 31c | 404.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 75c | 377.39$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 270.17$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 265.5$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 74c | 224.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked No | 66c | 221.97$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 212.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 207.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 38c | 205.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 47c | 193.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 18c | 178.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 173.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 29c | 155.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 153.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 69c | 145.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 143.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 38c | 141.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 73c | 138.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 138$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 129.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 121.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 113.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 107.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 29c | 103.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 100.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x406f…327dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 31c | 95.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 52c | 88.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 69c | 84.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 82.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 39c | 81.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 52c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 75.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 75.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 55c | 73.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…e34cbacked No | 72c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed No | 35c | 71.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…e8adbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 66.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 66.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 28c | 65.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 69c | 65.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 63.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…ebeabacked No | 66c | 63.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 23c | 61.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…d6bbbacked Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…f44abacked Yes | 31c | 60.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 60.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 33c | 60.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…52a1backed Yes | 34c | 59.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 35c | 57.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 36c | 56.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 26c | 56.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 59c | 55.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 21c | 54.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 60c | 54.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 50.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4a…a79dbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 36c | 49.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 54c | 48.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed No | 51c | 45.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6124…181abacked No | 66c | 44.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…5898backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 41.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5594backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 51c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 62c | 39.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…ebe8backed Yes | 36c | 37.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 39c | 37.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2833…015ebacked Yes | 34c | 35.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…dba2backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…02c3backed Yes | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 44c | 31.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 40c | 31.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 49c | 30.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059f…d749backed No | 41c | 30.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.