Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdae8561314b24ddb6b1d48b0d1d72cba9fb186b63016fa2df86909a7731ac34d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 999.34$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 58c | 475.09$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.14 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 68c | 473.47$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 64c | 437.93$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.98 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 314.23$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 36c | 311.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 62c | 260$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.24 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 44c | 248.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 63c | 244.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 237$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 76c | 222.79$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.19 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 74c | 216$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 44c | 186.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 151.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 150.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 28c | 137.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 137.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 28c | 135.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…36f6backed Yes | 10c | 129.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 63c | 127.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 30c | 112.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 89.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 19c | 86.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 30c | 84.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 80.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…ec7fbacked No | 39c | 74.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 49c | 72.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 64c | 67.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 30c | 67.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 72c | 66.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 66.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x574b…57d1backed No | 45c | 64.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…a908backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 70c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 54.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 27c | 53.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 35c | 42.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 28c | 41.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 39.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 43c | 37.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 35.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…dba2backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 34.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 34.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…7c82backed Yes | 32c | 32.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 43c | 31.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…8b3bbacked No | 70c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…3507backed No | 70c | 26.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 25.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 40c | 25.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c2…c9bbbacked No | 78c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 73c | 20.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 63c | 17.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 67c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 79c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…2533backed Yes | 65c | 15.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.