MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9a55f9e4846503ffed67fe4f25d06f8c415bcf3942ee741759b3e9062ce6cdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Athletics, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50d0…a6fcbacked Boston Red Sox | 76c | 5,908$4,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.05 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 24c | 2,840$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 45c | 2,475$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.94 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…f43ebacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 2,436$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.36 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 24c | 2,270$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.97 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Boston Red Sox | 77c | 461.04$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 20c | 403.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 16c | 326.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 138.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Athletics | 34c | 100.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 81.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Athletics | 32c | 75.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 74.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Athletics | 23c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Athletics | 25c | 50.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 75c | 50.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Athletics | 32c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 44.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics | 38c | 39.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 33.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 16.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.