MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c8802d9d7195201fb7ed066dd529d2b84c72c312b2a986c402ecf6779c4dbcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Over | 46c | 7,500$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 6,717$3,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,066.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 3,906$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.48 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 61c | 3,549$2,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.47 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 45c | 2,891$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.69 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Under | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 54c | 2,202$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.02 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 1,827$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 3c | 1,673$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.97 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 3c | 1,458$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.22 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 1,343$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 1,231$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.33 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 45c | 731.49$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.17 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 49c | 718.44$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.44 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 4c | 700$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 611.97$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.51 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 45c | 555$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 46c | 502$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.92 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 450.79$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Under | 61c | 419.72$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.91 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Under | 61c | 410.15$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.69 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 408$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.36 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 70c | 399.95$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.47 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 291.26$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 289$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 281.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 48c | 275.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Under | 55c | 272.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Under | 56c | 265.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Under | 58c | 255.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.43 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 45c | 220.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Under | 61c | 215.56$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Under | 62c | 201$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Under | 53c | 187.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 147.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Under | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 87.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 53c | 86.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Over | 46c | 83.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 56c | 82.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 61c | 80.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Under | 58c | 79.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…de06backed Under | 55c | 70.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Under | 54c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Over | 45c | 47.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Over | 39c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 73c | 40.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…e334backed Over | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 30.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 42c | 25.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 54c | 23.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21cb…4c28backed Over | 50c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…13e7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x026f…8bb4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.