MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21a3fb721c13515aa725cff483c9ebe0ff70ab2b0f9721be85c360aff6489212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 38c | 5,218$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.46 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…b5d9backed Over | 54c | 4,074$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 69c | 3,829$2,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.27 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 3,519$2,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.3 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…7e0bbacked Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 46c | 2,038$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.66 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 1,583$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.62 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 59c | 1,436$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.7 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 44c | 1,134$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.86 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.95 | 356 | 43.5%155 W · 201 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Under | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 73c | 1,021$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Over | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 55c | 546.27$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 512.27$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.62 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Over | 35c | 441.33$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 27c | 406.61$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 19c | 387.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Over | 36c | 386.59$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…8366backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 20c | 355.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 341.94$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.66 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Over | 39c | 286.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 19c | 278.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Over | 35c | 278.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 20c | 262.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 20c | 255$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 39c | 208.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Over | 37c | 208$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Over | 36c | 206$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Over | 35c | 201$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 25c | 190.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 183.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…3acdbacked Under | 60c | 161.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 20c | 146.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 45c | 142.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 37c | 121.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Over | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Over | 20c | 119.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 22c | 119.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Over | 72c | 101.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 25c | 95.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 39c | 90.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Over | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Over | 24c | 82.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 48c | 82.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Over | 36c | 62.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 22c | 59.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Over | 36c | 51.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 30c | 45.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 55c | 37.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…2008backed Under | 37c | 27.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 46c | 26.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Under | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Over | 55c | 25.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 46c | 22.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 76c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 64c | 15.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.