MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5616affadf0c70cc14ae064767f0bff9afe33b05cc72d1e26d97eb625c411b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Boston Red Sox, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 51c | 30,655$15,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,050.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 13,568$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 11,903$6,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,189.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…7e0bbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 47c | 6,310$2,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,344.29 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 2,440$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.66 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 1,809$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.84 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Athletics | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 47c | 1,638$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 1,511$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 48c | 1,492$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.08 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 791$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.41 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 74c | 776.46$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 750$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b8…8e9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 707.55$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 492.07$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.75 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Athletics | 48c | 474.98$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.99 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 460.79$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.61 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Athletics | 48c | 427.07$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.64 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 418.26$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 50c | 220.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 195.54$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9303…cc05backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 189.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Athletics | 46c | 188.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 139.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Athletics | 49c | 122.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Athletics | 47c | 116.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 50c | 110.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Athletics | 47c | 106.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Athletics | 50c | 102.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…fcdfbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 90.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…ae12backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 87.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Athletics | 51c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Athletics | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Athletics | 47c | 76.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 72.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 70.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Athletics | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Boston Red Sox | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…f3eabacked Athletics | 47c | 51.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 47.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Athletics | 47c | 46.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 40.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Athletics | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 37.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Athletics | 48c | 36.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…92b6backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Athletics | 47c | 27.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Athletics | 46c | 26.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Athletics | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics | 74c | 23.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Athletics | 47c | 23.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Athletics | 47c | 23.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Athletics | 54c | 21.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…dd5cbacked Athletics | 48c | 20.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa94…b3f4backed Athletics | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.