Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on January 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9a970eafcd63b430fdbcdf4f56af228c49c85b88fab86ea98bc7a17d0bca2ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa85…bcbdbacked Yes | 62c | 6,000$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…8a98backed No | 38c | 6,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 68c | 1,009$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.34 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 902.18$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.79 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 700.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 503.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 25c | 391.15$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.1 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 379.82$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 37c | 369.35$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…0dcabacked Yes | 61c | 349.82$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 10c | 289.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 14c | 243.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 229.79$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.95 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bc…74c5backed Yes | 43c | 220.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 26c | 193.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 30c | 178.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 151.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…ad70backed No | 68c | 149.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 40c | 145.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 18c | 118.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…f705backed No | 18c | 110.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 32c | 102.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…7372backed Yes | 41c | 96.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked No | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 88.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed No | 50c | 85.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 75c | 84.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…9f98backed Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed No | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 69.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…7829backed No | 15c | 66.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 39c | 64.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 43c | 62.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…dd08backed Yes | 69c | 60.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…6199backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…2310backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…05d6backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…2c54backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed Yes | 43c | 58.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed No | 70c | 57.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed No | 44c | 55.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Yes | 77c | 52.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 59c | 51.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 62c | 51.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 50.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…f52abacked No | 45c | 44.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…b73abacked Yes | 43c | 43.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…2770backed Yes | 74c | 40.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…068abacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 37.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 37c | 37.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 65c | 33.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…ca3cbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…eb9fbacked Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked Yes | 68c | 29.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…8719backed Yes | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 66c | 27.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8285…e25dbacked No | 74c | 24.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 72c | 24.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 70c | 22.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…f59abacked Yes | 60c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…5851backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…ee40backed No | 57c | 21.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350a…ea2cbacked No | 62c | 18.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…8c76backed Yes | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe452…6d20backed Yes | 68c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…0099backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on January 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.