MLB · resolved market
Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ce5a79818735a99dcb543a630edc76e3ba8d7e6e0020e65a1e188e84b2a47b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 15c | 1,248$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…68e6backed Yes | 18c | 1,112$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 17c | 749$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…7e2bbacked Yes | 6c | 689.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…7c0abacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 570.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c44…f0b8backed Yes | 6c | 327.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 18c | 325.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c3…f83bbacked Yes | 30c | 323.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 18c | 305$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x940b…0b4cbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7c…df26backed Yes | 14c | 250.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…1ecabacked Yes | 11c | 236.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 233$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Yes | 18c | 222.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…d73bbacked Yes | 17c | 105.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…a826backed Yes | 15c | 67.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-3?this page
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-0?No won
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-2?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-0?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-1?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-2?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.