MLB · resolved market
Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1633afee527e2f4270d8aaa5e0219bd3bf6205dba53ac673ca2bcde21216a467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 65c | 1,529$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.32 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed No | 57c | 1,260$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed No | 56c | 1,200$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.96 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 58c | 1,146$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.7 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Yes | 45c | 850$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…68e6backed Yes | 28c | 839.16$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 39c | 762.49$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.87 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 16c | 700.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.73 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…23adbacked Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…4f31backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 355.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.73 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…7c0abacked Yes | 29c | 348.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7608…ab97backed Yes | 38c | 313.57$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1f…86e1backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…7e2bbacked Yes | 26c | 299.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 45c | 289.29$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Yes | 43c | 247.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 43c | 238.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed No | 71c | 237.8$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 20c | 236.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0f…64c0backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa8…e100backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…5d4abacked Yes | 38c | 225.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e2…0187backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c44…f0b8backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 25c | 187$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…1ecabacked Yes | 35c | 141.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 14c | 111.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.01 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 23c | 110.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…1391backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…09d3backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +145%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…d73bbacked Yes | 14c | 105.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842c…2e53backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47db…9b16backed Yes | 40c | 87.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…678cbacked Yes | 43c | 72.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…a0b7backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…382bbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d4…c424backed Yes | 44c | 60.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2190…36babacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Yes | 25c | 53.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…67c6backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…1c70backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…5bbcbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +159%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x940b…0b4cbacked Yes | 77c | 44.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…00c0backed Yes | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da4…1e19backed Yes | 44c | 39.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…68c7backed Yes | 44c | 35.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032c…2355backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…6579backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 39c | 30.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a8…dcafbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-1?this page
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-0?No won
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-2?No won
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-3?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-0?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-1?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-2?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.