MLB · resolved market
Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9d86bdd963b543274db2873dc6020d804671f09f0c41171ef1d739758fd65db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fb0…e595backed Yes | 43c | 2,330$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…e0febacked Yes | 46c | 1,001$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 11c | 909$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 52c | 907.79$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ce…8a41backed Yes | 48c | 712.58$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 43c | 666$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.37 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…cf5ebacked No | 70c | 647$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 15c | 630.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 9c | 512.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe799…3d4dbacked Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Yes | 47c | 425.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 418.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…aeb9backed Yes | 32c | 400$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 43c | 366.22$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.63 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 41c | 365$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…521cbacked Yes | 15c | 341.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba8…32c3backed Yes | 51c | 329.41$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…30a1backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 47c | 230$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 67c | 217.51$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 207.02$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47db…9b16backed Yes | 13c | 164.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…9f23backed Yes | 20c | 125.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…7c0abacked Yes | 45c | 110.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Yes | 40c | 99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…8f7bbacked Yes | 44c | 95.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f62…cf1bbacked Yes | 42c | 84.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 51c | 81.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked No | 66c | 80.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…1c70backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…382bbacked Yes | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-0?this page
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-2?No won
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-3?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-0?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-1?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-2?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.