MLB · resolved market
Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ad24684cf5da5410a37488573077d331feea65c63fef238d92578e256b7d717
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 80c | 2,373$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.66 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 34c | 1,836$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.81 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa13d…47f5backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 17c | 1,206$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 73c | 1,186$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.17 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…96e6backed Yes | 25c | 1,004$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…68e6backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2310…8537backed Yes | 19c | 826.02$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 9c | 689$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…7c0abacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…1243backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 334.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 16c | 318.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c44…f0b8backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…5d4abacked Yes | 13c | 273.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…fb74backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 19c | 257.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…4138backed Yes | 24c | 208.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…be60backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd67…06a2backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…1ecabacked Yes | 26c | 194.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…2f6bbacked Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe1…7a5bbacked Yes | 33c | 125.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5c…1f98backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Yes | 18c | 108.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7564…4519backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…d73bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7c…df26backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 24c | 84.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a3…0bbabacked Yes | 34c | 74.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4181backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…382bbacked Yes | 25c | 60.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 54.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fed…78a9backed Yes | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf973…bcf0backed Yes | 34c | 38.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-2?this page
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-0?No won
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-3?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-0?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-1?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-2?No won
- Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.