MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9f5abe26621bf0538d006519de6df0139edb3615bd4ce3ad93bbcafa0d800c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Houston Astros, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,316 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Houston Astros | 56c | 793.08$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.66 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 579.85$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.11 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 427.8$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.64 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Houston Astros | 61c | 330.1$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Houston Astros | 53c | 233.6$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 225$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 187$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 171$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.85 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Houston Astros | 55c | 170.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…74b3backed Houston Astros | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 121$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 105$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…916dbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 101.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 99.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 95.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Houston Astros | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 86.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…8fe0backed Houston Astros | 56c | 67.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 66.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Houston Astros | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 52.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 42.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Houston Astros | 58c | 39.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Houston Astros | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Houston Astros | 59c | 34.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed Houston Astros | 58c | 34.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Houston Astros | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466b…fbe4backed Houston Astros | 56c | 26.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…d795backed Houston Astros | 59c | 26.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Houston Astros | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.