Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca36659e0054993d6712e90b0fc8e969768cbcb16843042e0efe1a180dac0c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Crystal Palace FCof Crystal Palace FC, ACF Fiorentina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Crystal Palace FC | 21c | 308.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.31 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed ACF Fiorentina | 78c | 265.51$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.37 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Crystal Palace FC | 29c | 171.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.58 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Crystal Palace FC | 29c | 171.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.58 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed ACF Fiorentina | 79c | 169.94$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed ACF Fiorentina | 79c | 169.94$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Crystal Palace FC | 29c | 140.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Crystal Palace FC | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Crystal Palace FC | 15c | 119.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed ACF Fiorentina | 79c | 100.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed ACF Fiorentina | 79c | 98.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed ACF Fiorentina | 79c | 98.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked ACF Fiorentina | 79c | 98.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Crystal Palace FC | 45c | 80.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Crystal Palace FC | 29c | 73.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked Crystal Palace FC | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked ACF Fiorentina | 50c | 54.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked ACF Fiorentina | 79c | 53.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed ACF Fiorentina | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Crystal Palace FC | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.