Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8fba19c421385b5bc059d1229fa5a4afe67cbbbfcd77b3cf2175a12d8714465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Crystal Palace FCof Crystal Palace FC, ACF Fiorentina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa492…adbebacked Crystal Palace FC | 36c | 801.33$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…1608backed Crystal Palace FC | 35c | 686.43$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Crystal Palace FC | 35c | 653.48$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 616.9$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.38 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed ACF Fiorentina | 64c | 479.08$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.61 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed ACF Fiorentina | 71c | 441.48$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed ACF Fiorentina | 20c | 243.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Crystal Palace FC | 31c | 238.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.31 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ACF Fiorentina | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -21.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 179.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Crystal Palace FC | 36c | 160.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59aa…3376backed ACF Fiorentina | 66c | 148.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Crystal Palace FC | 40c | 146$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Crystal Palace FC | 29c | 125$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Crystal Palace FC | 29c | 125$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 120.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Crystal Palace FC | 35c | 84.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Crystal Palace FC | 36c | 75.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed ACF Fiorentina | 64c | 65.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -11.8wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ACF Fiorentina | 43c | 57.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Crystal Palace FC | 34c | 56.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd978…c469backed ACF Fiorentina | 71c | 49.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Crystal Palace FC | 35c | 48.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Crystal Palace FC | 35c | 42.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed ACF Fiorentina | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -12.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Crystal Palace FC | 80c | 32.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8977…6579backed ACF Fiorentina | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed ACF Fiorentina | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…bdacbacked ACF Fiorentina | 66c | 27.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…257cbacked ACF Fiorentina | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 21.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.