Europa Conference League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf73450c757ac8080abc944bdeea5dad2026049d4b03c79f02707e85d6c5cce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 51c | 1,415$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 24c | 1,200$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 74c | 998.7$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.65 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 16c | 724.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.53 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 27c | 468.54$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.51 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 25c | 382$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 342.05$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 25c | 300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 76c | 158.68$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 75c | 142.38$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…a066backed Under | 75c | 142.38$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 25c | 124.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 25c | 124.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 25c | 124.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…6dd8backed Over | 25c | 113.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 33c | 112.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 110.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 84.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 78c | 83.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 78c | 83.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 82.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 53c | 65.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 78c | 63.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Over | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 76c | 46.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Over | 24c | 42.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 53c | 39.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…49e1backed Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed Under | 73c | 32.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c79…53c3backed Over | 46c | 31.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 76c | 29.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109b…cc8cbacked Over | 46c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…540dbacked Under | 57c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…bf73backed Under | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…0921backed Under | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.