Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca3814d500daf7d36c5f51dddd2021f1bf5420a1303cf391d8ec4fae5c783866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 26c | 675.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 423.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed Yes | 24c | 204.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 6c | 199.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 23c | 156.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 78c | 129.87$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 115.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 74c | 93.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 91.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 78.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed No | 76c | 78.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 70.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 66.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 60.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 78c | 58.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 56.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 25c | 45.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 36.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 74c | 33.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 74c | 27.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 73c | 23.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 75c | 22.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 22.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 20.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 74c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…79debacked No | 74c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516e…6e0ebacked No | 78c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 13.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 78c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.