MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca3d229aac1330b114bf9f751841f826affbb9fe4e13fde54f8c8242d4f97617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 29,197$11,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,153.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 21,743$13,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,588.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 4,897$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 1,218$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.22 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 800.62$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 700$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…f3dfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 568.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 308.47$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.38 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 292$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.02 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 260.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 252.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Milwaukee Brewers | 22c | 206.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 206.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 180$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 170$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 146.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 22c | 128$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed San Francisco Giants | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 93.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 76.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 52.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 42.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 33.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 26.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 25.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 17.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-7.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-9.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.