MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b736904d12c616d85337033615377c0a182e7a4691fbb6d01cbc7b71932e7da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 74c | 102,595$75,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,888.11 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 26c | 70,781$18,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,378.15 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 38,081$15,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,819.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 20,614$12,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,780.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 26c | 19,223$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,225.29 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 3,841$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 2,427$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 39c | 1,096$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.23 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 1,037$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 799$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.42 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 39c | 676.13$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.44 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 38c | 505.07$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.52 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 46c | 465.2$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.78 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…4b92backed Under | 26c | 449.82$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 47c | 438.76$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 38c | 334.43$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 60c | 270.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.62 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 43c | 228.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Under | 66c | 201.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.14 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 57c | 151.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 141.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 61c | 113.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 61c | 113.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed Over | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 61c | 98.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 44c | 94.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 60c | 89.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 84.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 46c | 79.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 44c | 60.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 38c | 60.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…b342backed Under | 71c | 60.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 30c | 50.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…ab75backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 65c | 48.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Over | 47c | 45.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 59c | 45.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 47c | 39.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 38.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…9b43backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 53c | 29.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 44c | 25.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Under | 72c | 25.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Over | 45c | 25.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 44c | 25.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 46c | 22.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-7.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-9.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.