MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb30574f01aeca6ca597a8e789072ef8e6c551ad91669be26f6df10f00330bb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 12,071$3,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,087.81 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 7,659$5,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,131.51 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 7,357$4,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,929.34 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 5,392$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,612.45 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 4,955$1,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,319.85 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 4,000$2,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,679.99 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 3,932$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 2,453$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.5 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 2,343$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 2,016$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.71 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 1,667$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.64 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 1,124$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 914.51$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.62 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 729.78$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 633.87$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.01 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 621.52$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 493.94$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.94 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…9671backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 450.54$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.72 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 403.5$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…040fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 400.19$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.08 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 379.05$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.11 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 370.92$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 209.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 199$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 179$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 139.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 127.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 119$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 113.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 96.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 80.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 68.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…2d8dbacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 60.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 55.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 54.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…baf9backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 48.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 46.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 37.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked San Francisco Giants | 29c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 35.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 34.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 33.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 32.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 30.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 29.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 17.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-7.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-9.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.