MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61dc10d2d8e0d2c46b0a6b36278c55c3cf7c5c2d9322ff380c0db6e44edcd91f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 19,586$10,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,751.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 11,787$5,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,448.02 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 42c | 10,940$4,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,647.36 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 3,126$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 54c | 2,204$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.56 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…49f6backed Under | 46c | 1,747$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 38c | 944.73$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 758$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 699.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 43c | 479.21$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.06 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 49c | 192$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 155.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…4b92backed Under | 41c | 151.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 65c | 147$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 140.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Under | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 41c | 126.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 18c | 101.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 59c | 97.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 52c | 94.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 85.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 54c | 61.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 54c | 50.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c928backed Over | 55c | 31.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 55c | 29.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 38c | 29.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 43c | 27.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 54c | 26.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 56c | 21.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…802bbacked Over | 62c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-7.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-9.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.