TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,679 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7760…21f0backed Yes47c2,436$1,145 inLost-$1,144.922,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No53c1,273$675 inWon+$598.353,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No55c947$521 inWon+$426.156,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Yes45c892.55$401 inLost-$400.8520845.2%94 W · 114 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7aa…08c3backed No57c526.32$300 inWon+$226.327655.3%42 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No57c345.7$197 inWon+$148.651,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No56c268.47$151 inWon+$117.522,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1636…977bbacked No56c268.39$150 inWon+$118.391060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No53c210$111 inWon+$98.72,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3ae…d117backed Yes44c150$66 inLost-$6613345.9%61 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No56c115$64 inWon+$50.61,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes45c110$50 inLost-$49.547850.4%241 W · 237 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Yes44c100$44 inLost-$441,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked No56c100$56 inWon+$4451849.4%256 W · 262 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes44c98$43 inLost-$43.1277647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Yes44c65.11$29 inLost-$28.6529250.7%148 W · 144 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Yes43c60.47$26 inLost-$2661352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes45c60$27 inLost-$271,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…5976backed No57c55.75$32 inWon+$23.976347.6%30 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed No56c42.84$24 inWon+$18.855967.8%40 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Yes43c35$15 inLost-$15.178854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbb…c7fbbacked No57c34.32$20 inWon+$14.761154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffd…3ef3backed No56c26.79$15 inWon+$11.798558.8%50 W · 35 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes43c25.11$11 inLost-$10.888,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed No57c19.82$11 inWon+$8.5234045%153 W · 187 L+1.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.