MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x698f3a4e35bf941a1d4a0ee6ea8a182e8aef3c401edb75789dd4547cb4056d19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8201…8a41backed San Francisco Giants | 80c | 20,016$16,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,013.89 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 19,098$3,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,819.57 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 67c | 2,576$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 1,006$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 930.04$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 869.15$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 795.32$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 781.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.82 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 19c | 585.64$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 25c | 519.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 328.95$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 279$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 273.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 261.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 245$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 182$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 168.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ede…e99cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d13…e9dcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 59.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 49.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 46.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 32.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 31.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 28.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa94…b3f4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed San Francisco Giants | 77c | 19.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Francisco Giants | 74c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Francisco Giants | 67c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 16.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-7.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-9.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.