TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,687 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals28c1,251$344 inLost-$344.2110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Chicago White Sox73c1,091$800 inWon+$291.325066.4%166 W · 84 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Kansas City Royals44c227.5$100 inLost-$10029331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Chicago White Sox68c220.74$150 inWon+$70.7412049.2%59 W · 61 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox56c217.5$122 inWon+$95.711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals21c193$41 inLost-$40.534,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox78c190.23$148 inWon+$42.158,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16e5…6373backed Kansas City Royals14c172.47$25 inLost-$258658.1%50 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago White Sox18c102.06$18 inWon+$83.6967250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Kansas City Royals19c100$19 inLost-$1920044.5%89 W · 111 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals21c87.43$18 inLost-$18.364,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Chicago White Sox79c60.23$48 inWon+$12.651,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Chicago White Sox77c48.77$37 inWon+$11.3382551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox61c38.05$23 inWon+$14.698,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Kansas City Royals38c36.05$14 inLost-$13.742241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Chicago White Sox44c25.08$11 inWon+$13.9344737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Kansas City Royals49c21.08$10 inLost-$10.2924554.7%134 W · 111 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Chicago White Sox79c14.64$12 inWon+$3.011,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.