MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754b959ada4932359adf8562b49129ce81d70b634c2e3c18657b78c9d73976ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 6,727$2,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.7 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 5,090$3,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.96 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 1,043$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.06 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 1,016$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.87 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 42c | 1,016$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 598.63$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 401.85$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Chicago White Sox | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Kansas City Royals | 4c | 321.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 262.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 248.84$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Chicago White Sox | 43c | 232.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.58 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 163.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 161.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…e17abacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 108.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 94.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 79.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 76.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 72.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…49babacked Kansas City Royals | 27c | 70.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +931.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 67.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 45c | 52.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 27.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.