TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,753 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3024…0737backed No47c441.59$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x855e…de25backed No78c403.24$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.24643.5%20 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes69c382.99$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9313728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes16c372.48$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.0346733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No33c372.05$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1384124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c367.43$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.0612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c366.86$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.428,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes35c339.51$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.8742857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2822…b098backed No10c306.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.75650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+132.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No66c302.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5781165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes33c280.09$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.7439951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4575…198dbacked No41c247.62$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.932441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+37.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes40c243.29$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9815433.8%52 W · 102 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes33c222.25$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.348748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c215.24$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.814,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes53c202.29$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4861365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3f9…e901backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105413%7 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2232…e889backed Yes21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15816529.1%48 W · 117 L+12.9wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No68c197.86$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.475356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes47c171.78$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.298643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked Yes37c171.64$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3429751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes25c156.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3625449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes28c144.64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.745,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c143.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes39c142.93$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5452533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed No74c135.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0516157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes73c126.89$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7625742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes39c124.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4726533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c121.6$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes41c113.77$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No62c103.56$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.862,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d4…4cf3backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes33c97.78$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.726738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes31c89.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.172040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x667e…7231backed No76c87.54$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No66c79.66$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3819059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes80c77.42$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4820161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No59c76.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.187,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2974…e9d8backed Yes35c75.65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.923323.6%55 W · 178 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No20c73.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7252155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes32c68.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2512733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes34c61.54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6111129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes34c60.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7516030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.237942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda63…8969backed Yes32c58.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.619929.3%29 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes27c58.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6113738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c55.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.269,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No65c52.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3662770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes48c52.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0866944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes31c51.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3427130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2189…13f1backed No71c51.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.333444.1%15 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c50.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.713,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes38c49.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3653437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes39c48.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.295,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No64c47.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.231,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b3…f0bebacked No65c46.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.958270.7%58 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No50c44.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.292,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd136…ef46backed Yes45c42.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.147665.8%50 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No72c41.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0270770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.866735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes39c39.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0611146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes37c38.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4140739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No67c36.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.161,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x592e…2030backed Yes53c35.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.85560%33 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked No60c33.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3531062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed No79c33.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.611362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No48c33.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No67c32.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.977,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes71c31.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.272,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb798…37cabacked No63c31.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365f…066bbacked Yes36c31.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+133.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.654966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfe6…1bfabacked No64c29.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2711741%48 W · 69 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No70c29.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5693734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcbc1…99e6backed No65c28.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.452181%17 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No61c28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.082,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No72c27.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7812962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No63c26.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No69c21.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8199571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No71c20.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.691,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed No61c20.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2856721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c19.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.991,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c18.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No69c17.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2341258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No68c17.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.662,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No66c16.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.121,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No69c15.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.528955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No70c14.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.498366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked No80c14.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9227648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.