Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e9501352092c50f4f421490d60b6c6a771f13466f583b28755995811df0d05d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2822…b098backed Yes | 6c | 330.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 66c | 302.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 31c | 212.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 40c | 170.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 47c | 142.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 141$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 40c | 117$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 56c | 110.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 99.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 55c | 93.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 30c | 92.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 34c | 90.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 86.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 60c | 81.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 78.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 60c | 74.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 37c | 69.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 67c | 68.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 65.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 63.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 62.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 61.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 34c | 57.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed Yes | 42c | 55.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 26c | 51.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 79c | 49.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 77c | 48.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 47c | 45.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 43.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 74c | 42.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 34c | 41.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 35.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 75c | 33.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 75c | 33.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 29.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 47c | 29.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 39c | 28.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 41c | 28.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 28.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 45c | 26.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 22.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 59c | 21.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 63c | 20.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 63c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63dc…ecefbacked No | 56c | 18.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 17.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.