Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca978e5887102c913ac86be095c463a107014785f8adc2122af99e477e0f7768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 18,555$12,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,932.8 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 20c | 12,500$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.98 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 38c | 6,182$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.41 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 2,376$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.83 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 2,208$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.66 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8397…a04dbacked Over | 62c | 2,092$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 5c | 549.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…e0ccbacked Under | 48c | 531.25$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 61c | 491.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x704a…88d8backed Over | 21c | 452$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 77c | 441.02$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 69c | 414.85$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…e7e0backed Over | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 46c | 309.07$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.38 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 46c | 288.66$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.47 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 136.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…4a17backed Over | 58c | 125.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 41c | 118.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 79c | 90.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 80c | 60.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 29c | 50.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 71c | 26.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 71c | 26.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 50c | 22.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 80c | 13.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 1.5this page
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 0.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 3.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 1.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 2.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Team to AdvancePFK CSKA Sofia won
- Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5)PFK CSKA Sofia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.