TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex Michelsen vs Mackenzie McDonald

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alex Michelsenof Alex Michelsen, Mackenzie McDonald
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,626
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,626 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Mackenzie McDonald41c15,172$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,200.188,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Alex Michelsen60c11,552$6,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,620.9710438.5%40 W · 64 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Mackenzie McDonald4c7,175$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.111,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Alex Michelsen73c5,922$4,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.924,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf8…5b60backed Alex Michelsen57c5,830$3,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,506.9811559.1%68 W · 47 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Mackenzie McDonald20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00058232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Mackenzie McDonald40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Alex Michelsen79c4,552$3,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.926070%42 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Mackenzie McDonald27c4,156$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.076,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Alex Michelsen74c3,035$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.0294068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Mackenzie McDonald2c2,999$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.991,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Alex Michelsen69c2,556$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.664,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mackenzie McDonald21c2,357$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.92,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Mackenzie McDonald49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.196035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Mackenzie McDonald21c2,037$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.532,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Alex Michelsen70c1,954$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.851,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Mackenzie McDonald14c1,810$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25017818%32 W · 146 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Mackenzie McDonald4c1,520$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.142,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3783…0038backed Mackenzie McDonald29c1,390$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Mackenzie McDonald20c1,300$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2606858.8%40 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb42…0ad9backed Mackenzie McDonald43c1,299$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.684240.5%17 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Mackenzie McDonald33c1,212$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40046030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3556…af4fbacked Mackenzie McDonald24c699.54$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8927724.9%69 W · 208 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Mackenzie McDonald5c688.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.234,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Mackenzie McDonald21c600$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1267,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed Alex Michelsen32c550$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.517136.3%62 W · 109 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4692…0feebacked Mackenzie McDonald35c549.19$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2215951.6%82 W · 77 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Alex Michelsen53c510.71$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.726,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked Alex Michelsen33c450$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.513438.8%52 W · 82 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d74…f2abbacked Mackenzie McDonald38c447.06$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16943334.9%151 W · 282 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Mackenzie McDonald33c308.57$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.471,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d74…4944backed Alex Michelsen65c292.47$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4716469.5%114 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Mackenzie McDonald21c278.48$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4856827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Alex Michelsen79c278.48$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4865652.1%342 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Mackenzie McDonald24c270.08$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.722,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42d6…01ccbacked Alex Michelsen77c259.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.871,07762.8%676 W · 401 L-27.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Alex Michelsen33c240$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.815733.1%52 W · 105 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8421…4e30backed Alex Michelsen33c240$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.88027.5%22 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Mackenzie McDonald15c229.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3517535.4%62 W · 113 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Mackenzie McDonald22c200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4393945.5%427 W · 512 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b39…1f68backed Alex Michelsen33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13412746.5%59 W · 68 L+13.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5264…7eb9backed Alex Michelsen33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1345438.9%21 W · 33 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Mackenzie McDonald11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2212250.8%62 W · 60 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bbb…0ac2backed Alex Michelsen33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1348441.7%35 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Alex Michelsen33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13415536.8%57 W · 98 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30ce…d485backed Alex Michelsen31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1388343.4%36 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Alex Michelsen75c199.98$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.993,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2688…9197backed Mackenzie McDonald25c199.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3533558.5%196 W · 139 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x370c…6929backed Mackenzie McDonald33c179.09$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5914947%70 W · 79 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Mackenzie McDonald22c175.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.575,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Alex Michelsen56c159.58$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5816848.2%81 W · 87 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Mackenzie McDonald34c153.57$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1376355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Alex Michelsen69c143.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.331,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a2d…d58abacked Alex Michelsen49c134.66$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick27cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Mackenzie McDonald23c132.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.981,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f1…6e6fbacked Mackenzie McDonald8c131.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111338.9%44 W · 69 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Mackenzie McDonald38c128.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.279,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x914a…9642backed Mackenzie McDonald31c121.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.584052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2e…1e57backed Mackenzie McDonald21c109.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fff…d384backed Alex Michelsen71c104.83$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.42171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Alex Michelsen75c104.1$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0299249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff9…e494backed Mackenzie McDonald35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3536040%144 W · 216 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x461d…db9ebacked Alex Michelsen72c94.44$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.445950.8%30 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fe…359dbacked Alex Michelsen33c91.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2610632.1%34 W · 72 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd9…90b2backed Alex Michelsen33c90.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.99532.6%31 W · 64 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Alex Michelsen56c88.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.141,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6e4…68bebacked Alex Michelsen73c81.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0413636.8%50 W · 86 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ec6…9404backed Mackenzie McDonald25c64.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.161233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…c2a0backed Mackenzie McDonald25c52.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137227.8%20 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7adb…221ebacked Alex Michelsen78c51.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Alex Michelsen76c49.65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1539648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf768…7831backed Mackenzie McDonald32c49.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9978957.8%456 W · 333 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Alex Michelsen77c44.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.211,02157.8%590 W · 431 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x883e…b1f2backed Mackenzie McDonald26c44.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.471631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c0…62b2backed Alex Michelsen78c42.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.471145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe01…b45dbacked Alex Michelsen78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.822377.6%173 W · 50 L+0.6wins0.00per pick77cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Alex Michelsen51c38.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0994447.7%450 W · 494 L+34.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed Alex Michelsen33c38.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0610425%26 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6d…935fbacked Mackenzie McDonald40c37.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+131.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5061…4b02backed Alex Michelsen56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.716663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+46.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6847…f1eabacked Alex Michelsen76c31.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5613770.1%96 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick70cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Alex Michelsen57c29.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.782,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alex Michelsen51c29.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.287,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39f6…c6efbacked Alex Michelsen37c29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2926640.6%108 W · 158 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebde…1de0backed Alex Michelsen61c28.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9389134.3%306 W · 585 L-40.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Alex Michelsen48c24.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7262549.6%310 W · 315 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e79…22e3backed Alex Michelsen63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8111756.4%66 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa31a…d023backed Alex Michelsen80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.754456.8%25 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Alex Michelsen75c17.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3145564.6%294 W · 161 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Alex Michelsen76c15.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.81,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919e…371dbacked Alex Michelsen72c14.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.974369.8%30 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.