Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcab9b743ee9e1fb38f5939774b1a3a2191860ba479e88e3578f81896a89cf4a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Münchenof Paris Saint-Germain FC, FC Bayern München
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 39c | 10,770$4,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,180.83 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked FC Bayern München | 60c | 5,799$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.68 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked FC Bayern München | 63c | 4,000$2,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked FC Bayern München | 62c | 822.57$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.58 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 38c | 748.94$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed FC Bayern München | 62c | 700$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed FC Bayern München | 61c | 574.65$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.96 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb22…ce57backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed FC Bayern München | 63c | 210.33$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 37c | 201.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked FC Bayern München | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed FC Bayern München | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed FC Bayern München | 62c | 97.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 39c | 84.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…f2e7backed FC Bayern München | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 39c | 76.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 37c | 71.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked FC Bayern München | 63c | 71.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed FC Bayern München | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked FC Bayern München | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 36c | 48.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9d…c744backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed FC Bayern München | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed FC Bayern München | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked FC Bayern München | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed FC Bayern München | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…fa48backed FC Bayern München | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 35c | 30.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…dc60backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed FC Bayern München | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0f…921cbacked FC Bayern München | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed FC Bayern München | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…b676backed FC Bayern München | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-0.5)this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.