NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb026cb3af723e6da30992710d9449f53ddd16949f616c6521dc4814bd98d029

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,339

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,704 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under	47c	3,763$1,781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,781.06	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e59…307dbacked Over	53c	2,300$1,219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,081	88	59.1%52 W · 36 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	43c	1,934$833 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,101.05	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Under	54c	1,414$764 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763.64	124	50.8%63 W · 61 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	47c	1,368$644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$724.77	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Under	68c	903.58$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.94	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	49c	550.69$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.28	898	50.9%457 W · 441 L	+19.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under	47c	449.25$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.15	616	38.5%237 W · 379 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	50c	248.5$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.4	1,317	47.8%629 W · 688 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Over	53c	238.9$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.57	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	51c	232.89$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.48	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a7…55bebacked Under	49c	197.15$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.95	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	51c	173.06$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.23	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64d6…aedbbacked Over	44c	115.98$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.74	106	57.5%61 W · 45 L	+7.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f6c…df05backed Over	51c	97.06$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.56	72	56.9%41 W · 31 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	528	61.9%327 W · 201 L	+32.3wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over	49c	89.03$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.4	76	43.4%33 W · 43 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ad…9805backed Over	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	229	42.8%98 W · 131 L	-9.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6276…7f2ebacked Over	38c	76.01$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.13	191	66.5%127 W · 64 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f47…6397backed Under	49c	67.86$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.25	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under	46c	67.85$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.26	377	53.8%203 W · 174 L	+12.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d2…6429backed Over	51c	57.37$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.26	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x130b…0e07backed Over	57c	38.89$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.63	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+3.7wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+36%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	53c	38.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Over	49c	36.9$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.82	238	40.8%97 W · 141 L	-16.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	45c	35.27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.87	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Under	49c	33.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.46	55	60%33 W · 22 L	+5.9wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	54c	33.17$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	906	50.2%455 W · 451 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	656	30.2%198 W · 458 L	-86.7wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over	46c	29$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.66	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8535…c307backed Under	53c	27.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	83	60.2%50 W · 33 L	+6.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Over	46c	26.09$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.09	30	66.7%20 W · 10 L	+5.4wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	50c	22.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event