Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb28ee6a57d374a0727c009a7068771526560830412e47b44141f9dd98039fce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 572.13$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 46c | 251.94$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.05 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 239.42$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 211.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 144.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 57c | 142.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 132.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 131.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 77c | 121$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 23c | 98.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 90.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 90.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 55c | 89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 49c | 87.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 55c | 83.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 54c | 77.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked No | 62c | 59.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 59.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 52c | 57.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 50c | 52.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 29c | 46.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 44.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 54c | 44.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 78c | 43.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Yes | 54c | 42.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 56c | 42.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 41.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 41.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 55c | 36.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 33.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 54c | 32.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 31.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 77c | 30.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 77c | 29.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 50c | 28.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 47c | 25.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 23.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 22.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 56c | 22.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.