NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb3275fd4ca0879f01af6986eaf12eb385da9aa81182f185e0886ab706c80206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Under | 53c | 14,040$7,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,469.13 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 47c | 12,658$5,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,708.74 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Under | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,820 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Over | 53c | 4,953$2,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.91 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 52c | 3,164$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.28 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 45c | 3,042$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.6 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 2,045$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.03 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 46c | 1,912$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.52 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 47c | 1,665$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.45 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 47c | 1,511$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.64 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 47c | 1,480$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.32 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 824.72$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.13 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 46c | 750$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 47c | 644$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.79 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Over | 54c | 525.52$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.66 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 497$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.59 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 54c | 455$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 52c | 444$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 53c | 348.38$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…95ffbacked Over | 69c | 330.58$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…85dabacked Under | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 53c | 319.14$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.14 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 268 | 48.5%130 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Under | 53c | 153.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 62c | 98.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Under | 32c | 81.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 54c | 78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Over | 47c | 32.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…1f5ebacked Over | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. BruinsBruins won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.